2015 NFL Draft: Baltimore Ravens Should Not Trade Up in the First Round

May 8, 2014; New York, NY, USA; C.J. Mosley (Alabama) walks to the stage after being selected as the number seventeen overall pick in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft to the Baltimore Ravens at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

One idea that gets batted around a lot, every single year, is the notion that “x” team should trade up in the first round to nab a guy they really covet. It’s a nice thought, especially when said team has a desperate need at a position, or if they truly feel like they are one guy away from becoming a championship team.

In reality, trading up in the first round rarely, if ever, pays off. More likely it will damage a team’s roster to the point where they go backwards in terms of success. It’s why smart teams and successful general managers rarely do it. With the modern day value of a high first round pick, the ends just don’t justify the means.

There are a lot of folks out there on the interwebs today that feel like the Baltimore Ravens should move up in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft and grab an elite wide receiver or cornerback. Aside from the fact that the Ravens just aren’t a team that wastes draft picks, let’s take a look at what it would cost them to move from 26 up into the top 15 picks.

Here is this year’s NFL draft value chart to give you an idea of the current value of each pick in every round of the upcoming draft.

1st Rd	2nd Rd	3rd Rd	4th Rd	5th Rd	6th Rd	7th Rd
1	3,000	33	580	65	265	97	112	129	43	161	27	193	14.2
2	2,600	34	560	66	260	98	108	130	42	162	26.6	194	13.8
3	2,200	35	550	67	255	99	104	131	41	163	26.2	195	13.4
4	1,800	36	540	68	250	100	100	132	40	164	25.8	196	13
5	1,700	37	530	69	245	101	96	133	39.5	165	25.4	197	12.6
6	1,600	38	520	70	240	102	92	134	39	166	25	198	12.2
7	1,500	39	510	71	235	103	88	135	38.5	167	24.6	199	11.8
8	1,400	40	500	72	230	104	86	136	38	168	24.2	200	11.4
9	1,350	41	490	73	225	105	84	137	37.5	169	23.8	201	11
10	1,300	42	480	74	220	106	82	138	37	170	23.4	202	10.6
11	1,250	43	470	75	215	107	80	139	36.5	171	23	203	10.2
12	1,200	44	460	76	210	108	78	140	36	172	22.6	204	9.8
13	1,150	45	450	77	205	109	76	141	35.5	173	22.2	205	9.4
14	1,100	46	440	78	200	110	74	142	35	174	21.8	206	9
15	1,050	47	430	79	195	111	72	143	34.5	175	21.4	207	8.6
16	1,000	48	420	80	190	112	70	144	34	176	21	208	8.2
17	950	49	410	81	185	113	68	145	33.5	177	20.6	209	7.8
18	900	50	400	82	180	114	66	146	33	178	20.2	210	7.4
19	875	51	390	83	175	115	64	147	32.6	179	19.8	211	7
20	850	52	380	84	170	116	62	148	32.2	180	19.4	212	6.6
21	800	53	370	85	165	117	60	149	31.8	181	19	213	6.2
22	780	54	360	86	160	118	58	150	31.4	182	18.6	214	5.8
23	760	55	350	87	155	119	56	151	31	183	18.2	215	5.4
24	740	56	340	88	150	120	54	152	30.6	184	17.8	216	5
25	720	57	330	89	145	121	52	153	30.2	185	17.4	217	4.6
26	700	58	320	90	140	122	50	154	29.8	186	17	218	4.2
27	680	59	310	91	136	123	49	155	29.4	187	16.6	219	3.8
28	660	60	300	92	132	124	48	156	29	188	16.2	220	3.4
29	640	61	292	93	128	125	47	157	28.6	189	15.8	221	3
30	620	62	284	94	124	126	46	158	28.2	190	15.4	222	2.6
31	600	63	276	95	120	127	45	159	27.8	191	15	223	2.3
32	590	64	270	96	116	128	44	160	27.4	192	14.6	224	2

If the Ravens want to move up to, say, the 15th pick, it would cost them 1,050 points. This means they would have to give up their first rounder (26th pick, 700 points) along with their second rounder (58th pick, 320 points) and one of their fifth rounders (158th pick, 28.2 points). Is it really worth giving up a second and fifth to move up 11 spots?

History, for the most part, tells us no. In 2014, the Buffalo Bills gave up their 9th round selection and first and fourth round picks in this year’s draft to move up to number four and take wide receiver Sammy Watkins. Watkins, widely considered the best receiver prospect heading into last year’s draft, went on to finish only sixth in receptions and fourth in receiving yards among rookie wideouts. The Bills could have stayed put at #9 and taken any of the talented guys that finished ahead of Watkins (save for Mike Evans), including Odell Beckham and Kelvin Benjamin.

While it’s too early to tell if the Sammy Watkins will be worth the price the Bills paid to get him, we can also look at the case of Julio Jones and the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons, who were coming off a 13-3 season and two consecutive opening round playoff losses, felt like they were only one guy away from a championship heading into the 2011 NFL Draft, and many pundits agreed.

To get Jones, the Falcons gave up an incredible five draft picks to get from number 27 to number 6: their 1st rounder (#27), 2nd rounder (#59), and 4th rounder (124th) in 2011, plus a 1st and 4th rounder in 2012. Granted, Julio Jones has become one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. But at what cost? The Falcons, who had the best regular season record in the NFL prior to drafting Jones, have posted the following win totals since: 10-6 in 2011, 13-3 in 2012, 4-12 in 2013, and 6-10 in 2014. They have won one playoff game in that span.

There’s no doubt that the draft is often a crapshoot, and it’s impossible to predict with 100% confidence that any player will become a star. That’s part of the reason why smart teams, like the Ravens, covet draft picks. After all, more lottery tickets = a better chance of winning the lottery. And it’s also the reason why, even though we play the “what if trade game” every year, few teams actually pull the trigger. Don’t expect to see the Ravens do it in 2015.

Next: The Ravens Don't Have to Draft a Receiver in the First Round

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