Feb 3, 2013; New Orleans, LA, USA; Baltimore Ravens safety Ed Reed (20) celebrates with the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the San Francisco 49ers 34-31 in Super Bowl XLVII at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been less than a month since the Ravens brought the Lombardi Trophy back to Baltimore and already it’s time for the front office to make some critical personnel decisions for the 2013 season. Much of the bandwidth to this point has been consumed with discussions on Flacco’s impending deal. To be sure, re-signing the Super Bowl MVP is an important concern for the team, but based on comments from Ravens’ executives, the decision is not “if”, but “how much.” This is indeed an important consideration because how the team keeps Joe in a Ravens jersey will greatly affect how much cash they will have to retain other free agents.

Bubbling slightly below the surface of the Flacco negotiation is concern over Ed Reed’s future with the squad. The future hall of famer became an unrestricted free agent after that glorious win in New Orleans and rumors are aflutter that the ace might be lured out of Charm City by the cash recently freed up in New England after Tom Brady’s new deal was inked.

This is not an impossible proposition, but I think it is unlikely for a few reasons.

First, regardless of the positive sentiments flowing between Reed and Belichick, the Patriots have more urgent needs. While the Patriots certainly need to focus on their secondary, Talib’s free agency and Dennard’s legal issues make the cornerback spot their chief concern. Also, the Patriots will have to use a large part of that new-found cap space to ensure they can keep some quality receivers around their bargain quarterback.

Next, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the Ravens and Flacco arrive at a deal that offers the squad the ability to retain at least some of the weapons that allowed Joe to shine. Despite the rhetoric, Joe knows that he needs the Ravens as much as they need him.

And finally, Ed Reed has hinted at retirement after the last few seasons and all signs point to the fact that he wants to retire as a Raven (and that the Ravens would love for him to do so). I do not think that it is serendipity that led to Reed’s return for another season. Indeed, to end a Canton-esque career under the shadow of legendary Ray Lewis would have been a slight to both Ray Ray and Ed.

Therefore, I am hopeful that we will see #20 back on the field in a Ravens jersey next season. In addition to providing leadership on the defensive side of the ball, creating excitement for fans and fear for opposing quarterbacks, Ed’s return will reduce the pressure on front office personnel to find another safety. This will provide time for Omar Brown to further develop (an exciting player in his own right), and allow the Ravens to focus their limited cap space and draft picks on far greater needs – linebackers, offensive linemen, and receivers.

The Baltimore Ravens are Super Bowl Champions!

Reality is a slow emotion, so I’m still coming to grips with what actually happened tonight, but Ravens fans around the planet should stand proud!

Even tough the electricity gods attempted to change the momentum, the Ravens decided that tonight was their night.  They decided that tonight was Ray’s night; it was Joe’s night, and John Harbaugh’s night.  And they were victorious. Joe Flacco was named the MVP, and his huge supporting cast of Boldin, Rice, Pitta, Jones, Smith, and Leach were impeccable.

In the next few days we’ll need to debate how many of these superstars the Ravens can afford next year, but for tonight, let’s simply bask in the glow that is called “World Champions!”

Congratulations Ravens!

With most of the media pouncing on the verbal miscues of players, familial back stories, and deer antler byproducts, one can easily forget the ultimate reason for all the hoopla – Super Bowl XLVII (aka Har-Bowl 1).  Unlike years past, the contest between the Ravens and 49ers promises to exceed the entertainment value viewers have generally found only in million-dollar-per-minute commercials.

Indeed, most prognosticators are forecasting a close game with the 49ers favored by three and half points.  So what does recent Super Bowl history tell us about the underdog Ravens’ chances at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy? 

If past is prologue, then the Ravens are facing an uphill battle.  According to Vegas Insider, the favorite has won six of the last ten Super Bowls (not necessarily by the point spread).  Additionally, throughout the Super Bowl’s history, the NFC and the favorites maintain a slight edge over the AFC and underdogs.

I still like the Ravens’ chances.  As I’ve stated in previous posts, these types of statistics are more probabilistic than deterministic.  Furthermore, they are lagging indicators and therefore have limited value in predicting the future. 

This game, therefore, will come down to execution.  And in a contest between two extremely well balanced teams the Ravens’ success will be defined by their run defense and the play of the offensive line.  On the defensive side of the ball the key question is, can the Ravens limit the ground game of Kaepernick and Gore?  This will be especially important on those 3^rd and middle yardage situations.  If the Ravens front seven can keep these play makers hemmed up, and put the game on Kaepernick’s arm, their chances of victory will increase significantly.  Offensively, the key will be maintaining the outstanding protection the line has demonstrated throughout the playoffs.  The addition of Bryant McKinney has had a significant impact, and I would also expect to see a lot of Flacco connections to Rice out of the backfield since the 49ers will likely work overtime to avoid the fate of Champ Bailey.  

Super Bowl history also tells us that sixty percent of the last ten championships were decided by seven or fewer points.  I expect this trend will continue Sunday night with a close one between Baltimore and San Francisco.  If that is the case, it would be a sweet send off for Ray Lewis if the most photographed, most talked about, and most valuable rookie’s name ends in Tucker.

Regardless of the outcome enjoy the moment.  It is a tribute to the hard work and dedication of the entire Ravens organization (including the fans) that the men in purple and black will represent the AFC in New Orleans.  There is a game to play, and it is almost here.  As T-Sizzle is fond of saying on his facebook page, “2 more sleeps.”

Go Ravens!