The NFL Draft is less then two hours away….I am predicting a lot of trades in the first round, but my Mock Draft does not include trades…just the players that I believe will go to the team if/when they were to keep their pick.  I can see the Ravens trading up to grab a left tackle (Lane Johnson?) or an inside linebacker (Alec Ogletree?), or I can see them trading back into the second round to grab a few extra picks.   It should be an exciting draft as always.  Here is my take on how the first round will play out…

 1. Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Joeckel, OL (Texas A&M)

 2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Eric Fischer, OL (Central Michigan)

 3. Oakland Raiders – Ezekiel Ansah, DE (BYU)

 4. Philadelphia Eagles – Dion Jordan, DE (Oregon) *I can see the Eagles trading out of this spot as there will be teams interested in OL-Lane Johnson.

 5. Detroit Lions – Dee Millner, CB (Alabama)

 6. Cleveland Browns – Geno Smith, QB (West Virginia)

 7. Arizona Cardinals – Lane Johnson, OL (Oklahoma) *Cardinals may have to trade up to get Lane Johnson at #4

 8. Buffalo Bills -  Tavon Austin, WR (West Virginia) *Bills need a lot of help, They could also take Geno Smith if he is still on the board.

 9. New York Jets – Shariff Floyd, DT (Florida)

10. Tennessee Titans - Chance Warmick, OG (Alabama)

11. San Diego Chargers – Star Lotulelei, DT (Utah)

12. Miami Dolphins – D.J. Fluker, OT (Alabama) *Eifert could be another choice here, but after losing LT-Jake Long…this is the smarter choice.

13. New York Jets – Tyler Eifert, TE (Notre Dame)

14. Carolina Panthers – Sheldon Richardson, DT (Missouri) 

15. New Orleans Saints – Barkevious Mingo, LB (LSU) *Saints will pick one of two LSU standouts in Mingo or S-Eric Reid here.

16. St. Louis Rams – Kenny Vaccaro, S (Texas)

17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Jarvis Jones, OLB (Georgia)

18. Dallas Cowboys – Jonathan Cooper, OG (North Carolina)

19. New York Giants – Bjoem Werner, DE (Florida State)

20. Chicago Bears – Manti Te’o, LB (Notre Dame) *Need Te’o or Olgetree to replace Urlacher in the middle of the field. 

21. Cincinnati Bengals - Eric Reid, S (LSU)

22. St. Louis Rams – Alec Olgetree, LB (Georgia) 

23. Minnesota Vikings – Sylvester Williams, DT (North Carolina)

24. Indianapolis Colts – Xavier Rhodes, CB (Florida State) 

25. Minnesota Vikings – Cordarelle Patterson, WR (Tennessee) *Patterson , DeAndre Hopkins, or Keenan Allen are needed to “replace” Percy Harvin. 

26. Green Bay Packers – Eddie Lacy, RB (Alabama) *Green Bay has needed a RB for a long time.  Lacy is the only RB to go in the first round

27. Houston Texans – DeAndre Hopkins, WR (Clemson)

28. Denver Broncos – Tank Carradine, DE (Florida State)

29. New England Patriots – D.J. Haydan, CB (Houston)

30. Atlanta Falcons – Desmond Trufant, CB (Washington) 

31. San Fransisco 49ers – Matt Elam, S (Florida)

32. Baltimore Ravens – Jonathan Cyprien, S (Florida) * Ravens will take the best available player they hope Olgetree slides to them…but Elam or Cyprien is the more likely bet.  If the Inside linebackers and Safties are gone…look for them to trade down and grab more picks.

This puts the Ravens in a great draft position.  The Ravens still need a cornerback, a safety, an inside linebacker, a wide receiver, a tackle, and a center.  They have 12 draft picks to shore up these needs and also add some depth to the roster.  So, Baltimore can trade up, trade down, or just draft the “best available” player remaining with the 32nd overall pick .

The Baltimore Ravens have a great draft-day track record because they never ”reach” for players and they don’t draft for need.  They take the best available player on their board, no matter what position, or they trade out of that spot if the guy they want isn’t available or is deemed too high to take in that spot.  The fact there are no glaring needs only makes it harder to predict what the Ravens are going to do.

Ozzie Newsome is the best GM in football.  He has a plan and he has worked “his plan” flawlessly this offseason.  He has added some great football players at very good (and in some cases very cheap) prices.  Come September, this team will look a lot different, but, rest assured Ravens fans this team will be good and challenging for another playoff berth.

The Wizard, Ozzie Newsome.

The Baltimore Ravens were huge underdogs against the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers in last season’s playoffs, but as you all know….the Ravens beat all three teams.  You would think that after winning the Super Bowl, Baltimore would get the benefit of the doubt.  Nope….the National media will NEVER learn….don’t ever bet against the BALTIMORE RAVENS!

After two weeks of free agent losses, I heard it all…. ”it’s going to be a bad year in Baltimore” , “the Ravens are going to finish last in the AFC North” , “the rebuilding process has started in Baltimore” , “the Ravens are a sinking ship” … Well, where are all of the nay-sayers now?   As I stated last week, “Ozzie Newsome has a plan” and yesterday, with the signing of Elvis Dumervil, you saw first hand why the Baltimore Ravens are the reigning Super Bowl champions

Ozzie Newsome is the best GM in professional sports, period!  The man has ice in his veins, and is nothing less then a a genius.  Was it tough to lose Anquan Bolden, Ed Reed, Paul Kruger, Dannel Ellerbe, and Cary Williams?  Sure, but a smart GM doesn’t let emotion get in the way.  Signing players to outrageous contracts is the “norm” for many teams, but not for the Baltimore Ravens.

Ozzie Newsome, and the Ravens, are the NFL’s version of “MONEYBALL.” Ozzie understands that the Ravens are like a mathematical equation.  You lose 11 starting players, and all 11 players had a certain value in the team’s “success equation” last season.  Now, it’s about finding a group of players whose collective value is greater then the players you have lost…it’s that “simple”.  They may not have the biggest names, but they understand and fit into your system.  They fill your team’s needs, make up for your teams losses, and hopefully, you can find a bargain or two, to stay below the salary cap.

Ozzie Newsome places a “price tag” that he’s willing to pay each player on the Ravens.  Once Ozzie determines that the perceived value of the player is less then the cap space he’s taking up….bam, said player is a former Raven.  In the salary cap era, you can’t keep every player. After winning a Super Bowl, every team has their sights set on your free agents.   It’s a business, and no one understands this better than Ozzie Newsome.

Yesterday was a great example of Ozzie being a great GM.  He loses Paul Kruger to the Cleveland Browns for a 5 year/$40 million contract.  Then yesterday, he signs Elvis Dumervil to a 5 year / $35 million dollar deal(base salary of 5 year/ 26 million).  Dumervil has 63.5 sacks in six seasons, while Kruger has only started 7 NFL games in four seasons, and has 15.5 sacks in his career.  Is Kruger a bad player?  No, but the guy probably wasn’t worth the $40 million dollar contract he got, especially when you consider that the Ravens got a better player in Dumervil for $5(or $14) million dollars less.

The teams that make the biggest splash in March, usually are not the ones playing deep into the postseason.  The Philadelphia Eagles learned this two years ago as their “dream team” never made it to the playoffs.  I suspect the Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns will learn the same lesson this year too.  Those teams are getting the headlines now, but the Ravens get the headlines when it counts most….in the playoffs.

The Wizard of Oz isn’t done yet though.  FS-Michael Huff is coming in next and he would fill the hole vacated by Ed Reed.  Then the Ravens have to 12 picks in next months NFL draft.  This bodes well for Baltimore.  With their draft history, the Ravens will surely find 1-2 starters and the rest of the picks will help fill the depth charts with younger, faster (and cheaper) talent.

My advise to the National media…..bet against the Ravens???  NEVERMORE!