When the Baltimore Ravens signed Odell Beckham Jr. the initial thought was, great, but for how much? When the report was that he was going to get up to $18M, the initial thought was that the actual deal would be much lower. Then, many were shocked to hear that he got $15M of that guaranteed. Most assumed it would be only $5-$6M with plenty of funny money due to his health, but the Ravens went all-in.
Is it risky? Yes. But it is not a bad overpay. Here is why.
3. Baltimore Ravens can add void years to lower the cap hit
The salary cap is real, and it there are hard and fast rules. However, there are ways to soften the cap and make it easier to manage. One way that popped up due to the pandemic was void years. Teams did not initially want to go to these deals, but in an effort to clear cap in the present, they added void years to kick the issue down the road.
Considering the Ravens are tied up against the cap, and they have the Lamar Jackson situation looming over them, they will be using these void years to lower his salary cap. Below is a look at what this may look like.
Given how intent the Ravens are to keep current cap space open for matching a potential Lamar Jackson offer sheet, I have fairly high confidence that this is what Odell Beckham, Jr.'s contract with the Ravens will look like. pic.twitter.com/vwgtSeqPfy
— Nick Korte (@nickkorte) April 10, 2023
This shows us that the cap hit for next season will end up closer to $4M. That is closer to Nelson Agholor. Of course, Agholor does not come with the additional four years of a roughly $3M cap hit. Still, $3M is not much on the cap, and considering the cap should go up every year, the hit actually gets smaller and smaller from a percentage stand point.
The number was initially surprising, but when you phrase it as a $4M cap hit today and a bunch of small hits that get easier to manage over four years, it is fine, and not going to break their backs, or hurt their chances of doing anything else.
2. The price of wide receiver keeps going up
If you recall last year around this time, all the talk was wide receiver money. While there were not good wideouts in this free agent market to spend big on, that did not mean the market just cooled. Once one name came up that had a chance to be worth it, he got paid.
Still, when you look at his overall salary and compare it to other wide receivers, it is not all that bad. He is making about the same money as Hunter Renfrow and Allen Robinson. Robinson was coming off a bad season in Chicago when he signed with the Rams and no one batted an eye. Hunter Renfrow is limited as a slot wideout, and does not bring much upside. He spent last year hurt for a decent chunk of the year. Be honest, would you rather have Robinson on that deal or Beckham?
Jakobi Meyers signed for $11.5M, and while Odell Beckham is coming off an ACL, he is still considered better than Meyers on his best days. Corey Davis and Curtis Samuel are making over $11M as well, so you can spare me with the thought that he is not worth more than that. Even if Beckham is not quite his prime, you still take the chance at him over those names, even at the same or more money.
Even if Odell Beckham hits all of his incentives, his deal will come in less than Diontae Johnson, Christian Kirk, Mike Williams, and Amari Cooper. At most, he would check in around 18th in salary amongst wide receivers. He currently is just inside the top 25. So, does the number look high? Yes. Would you rather take a shot on Odell Beckham over Curtis Samuel and Corey Davis? Easily. Knowing that his max value will barely crack the top 20 in wide receiver salary makes it easier to live with.
1. If Baltimore Ravens can extend Lamar Jackson, the difference is priceless
Immediately after the Baltimore Ravens signed Odell Beckham, the question was, how does this impact Lamar Jackson. We swiftly learned that it would not hurt their cap the way some wish it would. Beyond that, we saw that Lamar Jackson glowingly approves of the move.
He posted that he had been chatting with Odell Beckham, and it does appear that Beckham would not have signed the deal if he did not think he could hit his incentives. He think he can hit them with ease because Lamar Jackson will be back at quarterback.
The reality is that if this deal gets Lamar Jackson back to the negotiation table with the Ravens then the deal is priceless. If it allows the Ravens to save a few backs with Lamar Jackson that is even better. In the grand scheme of things, this will cost the Ravens less than $3M in 2027. If you ask anyone in the front office if $3M in 2027 is worth ending the Lamar Jackson they would laugh at how easily the answer would be yes.
So, on the surface it is a big deal, and initially is a bit surprising. However, it does not kill their cap, it is barely top 20 wide receiver money, and if it brings back Lamar Jackson, it is easy to pay.