While the Baltimore Ravens 2023 regular season has gone well, it has been surprising how the year has gone with all of the twists and turns. With that in mind, what we think will happen in the second half of the season very well may not happen. What are some bold predictions that may be different than what we are thinking right now?
5. Odafe Oweh will finish the regular season with ten sacks for the Baltimore Ravens
Odafe Oweh has two sacks halfway through the 2023 season. So, to finish with eight sacks in the next eight games would be a very impressive finish. While he only has two sacks right now, he does have two in the last three games. That is because he is finally healthy.
Oweh had a great debut against the Houston Texans and Laremy Tunsil but got injured early on into week two. He has been back for the last three weeks, and his pass rush has been effective. In fact, his win rate is up 7% over last year.
Oweh is not only winning more, he has had some tough competition. We noted that he saw Tunsil in week one, and he returned to see Taylor Decker with the Detroit Lions, D.J Humphries with the Arizona Cardinals, and Charles Cross with Seattle. Two sacks in that span are impressive.
Odafe Oweh should have a few easier matchups down the stretch with a real chance to rack up multiple sacks in a game or two. If he keeps up his current win rate, he could stay at the same pace of two sacks every three weeks, and that would get him closer to ten as well.
Look for Odafe Oweh to finish his 2023 season a lot stronger than he started it.
4. The Baltimore Ravens will phase out Odell Beckham for Patrick Ricard and Isaiah Likely
The Baltimore Ravens gave Odell Beckham a chance, but he has not been working out. He is coming off his best game statistically, but the game still had an ugly drop and a fumble loss. It felt like they were targeting him in the second half to try to get him going.
Their best bet in the second half may be to phase out Beckham and lean more into Patrick Ricard. When the Ravens added Todd Monken and lost Greg Roman, we knew that they would change to a more wide-receiver-heavy approach. Their three wide receivers sets, which is 11-personnel, is at 48.3% this season. That is up from 12.7% last year. However, they have not been better from this look.
According to Sumer Sports, the Ravens gain -0.07 expected points per play from 11-personnel this year, which ranks 23rd. They are at -0.13 expected points per pass. Last year, they were at the exact same on a per-play basis but ranked 25th and were at -0.11 on a per-pass basis.
They are running better out of 11 personnel, with 0.18 EPA/play compared to 0.07 last year. Still, this is not making a huge difference.
On the flip side, Monken has been able to take the Roman personnel and make it better. Their 21 personnel, which is two running backs and a tight end, often Patrick Ricard, ranks 3rd in EPA per play at 0.26. Their 12-personnel, which is two tight ends, ranks fifth at 0.13 EPA/play. Last year, they were at 0.09 EPA from 21 and 0.02 from 12. They are much better this year.
Passing-wise, they gained 0.64 out of 21, 0.33 out of 12 this year, and 0.11 and -0.01 in those areas, respectively, last year. They are much better using Isaiah Likely and Patrick Ricard. They should work them in more but continue to use the Todd Monen concepts.
3. The Baltimore Ravens will see Rashod Bateman be their top receiver in the second half
The Baltimore Ravens are starting to get more out of Rashod Bateman. Bateman had a serious injury last year, and it took him all offseason to recover. Then, he suffered an injury in week three, so it is easy to see why it took him a while to get going.
In the first six weeks of the season, he was averaging 16.4 yards per game, 5.5 yards per target, and 0.82 yards per route run. However, he has turned things around in the past three weeks. He is up to 32.7 yards per game, 9.8 yards per target, and 1.72 yards per route run. He has essentially doubled the production he was giving on a per-snap, target, and game basis.
His career rate is 1.43 yards per route, so the thought is that if Bateman keeps up his rate of the past couple of weeks but starts to get more playing time, he will continue to have the best stretch of games of his career.
Odell Beckham is playing over him but is averaging 1.59 yards per route run over that same span and has had a few more costly plays. Zay Flowers is the current top wideout, but the rookie has been fading a bit, and it is down to 1.19 yards per route run over that three-week span. Flowers is a rookie who may hit a wall, and the Ravens would be smart to limit him at times over the winter months to make sure he is healthy for the playoffs.
Lamar Jackson said that Bateman would be the wide receiver one, it just took some time. The team should work him as their top pass catcher.
2. The Baltimore Ravens defense will come back to earth a bit
The Baltimore Ravens defense has been electric. You cannot make many knocks against it other than the reality that they have not had a signature performance yet this year. It is fair to say that they did well against CJ Stroud and Joe Burrow. However, Stroud was making his first start, and the Texans' offensive line was a mess. For Joe Burrow, he was injured, and the Bengals did have 24 points.
They shut down prolific offenses like Seattle and Detroit, but they are led by Jared Goff and Geno Smith, who we know come up short. The rest of the teams have been Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Ryan Tannehill until Malik Willis came in, and Joshua Dobbs. They feasted on some backups.
The defense is for real, but they will be tested more in the second half than the first. Deshaun Watson will be one of the worst quarterbacks they face in the next couple of months. This is the real test against a healthy Joe Burrow, and then they get Justin Herbert.
Trevor Lawrence, plus two of the best run offenses in the NFL with the 49ers and Dolphins loom. If they can play well in the five games against the 49ers, Dolphins, Jaguars, Chargers, and Bengals, then this is an all-time defense. They may fall off a little bit.
1. The Baltimore Ravens will bench John Simpson for Ben Cleveland
If there is one weak spot on the Baltimore Ravens offensive line, it has to be John Simpson. We knew that coming into the year, and it remains the same now. He has played some of his best football recently, but some of that is matchup-related. He has been up and down overall and has caused too many penalties.
He gets a huge test this weekend with the Cleveland Browns, and there may be some tests down the road that cause the Ravens to think about making a change. Before the offseason programs started, most people assumed that Ben Cleveland would start at left guard. However, the coaches have not been impressed.
One good note is that Cleveland has gotten some work in these blowout games. He has not played left guard, but he is winning the coaches' back over. We may see a point where the Ravens realize that Simpson is their one weak spot. They may have time before the playoffs to give Cleveland a look and see if he can push this unit over the edge. The timing would be right, and the play of Simpson may continue to warrant these thoughts.