This is going to be a make-or-break season for J.K. Dobbins with the Baltimore Ravens. He missed most of the last two seasons with injuries, but he did start to turn things around by the end of last year.
Still, he is now entering his fourth season in the NFL, and he will be a free agent after this season. No matter what he does the Ravens will have a serious decision to make regarding his future. However, while some fans may think that a breakout in 2023 is due to finally showing up for the contract there is a real reason to believe that J.K. Dobbins will have his best year yet.
3. Baltimore Ravens may see less stacked boxes
One of the perks of playing with a mobile quarterback such as Lamar Jackson is that his running ability will freeze linebackers, and draw attention away from the running backs. However, the downside is that teams load the box to stop the run and dare Jackson to beat them through the air.
J.K. Dobbins sees that firsthand. Last season, he saw eight defenders in the box on 36% of his rushing attempts. That ranked fourth in the NFL behind Cordarelle Patterson, Tyler Allgier, and Derrick Henry. It makes sense because Marcus Mariota was a mobile quarterback who got less respect than Lamar Jackson, and Derrick Henry is the entire Titans offense so teams load up to stop him. Beyond that, the next is Dobbins.
If Dobbins were to start seeing lighter boxes things could get really interesting for him. The Baltimore Ravens may have found a way to make that happen. The key will be playing 11-personnel. The Ravens have always been the team to play multiple tight ends and fullbacks before their third wideout. That can be a good reason for opponents to stack the box. Now, the Ravens finally have a third wideout worth playing.
If Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham can stay healthy, and they can utilize Zay Flowers out of the slot, teams will have to defend the Ravens completely differently. It is no surprise that the statistics show that most teams are far more successful out of 11-personnel, which is three wideouts, one tight end, and one running back. Opponents have smaller bodies in the game and are looking more for the pass.
With Todd Monken as offensive coordinator, and the Ravens paying big and drafting high at wide receiver, you have to think that this is the plan. If this is the case, the boxes will be lighter, and things will get easier for Dobbins.
2. Baltimore Ravens Offensive Line could see two big improvements
As talented as Dobbins is as a running back, he still needs his support system. No running back can do anything without a great offensive line. There are two huge pieces on the Ravens' offensive line that could spark a breakout campaign for J.K. Dobbins.
First, we have Ronnie Stanley. Remember healthy Ronnie Stanley? Those were the days. It has been since 2020 when we saw that, though. He missed almost all of 2020 and 2021, and he made his way back in 2022. When he was healthy towards the end of the season, the Ravens' run game started to show some life.
The Baltimore Ravens offense was at its peak in 2019, and it is no surprise that Stanley was at his peak as well. He is such a key piece as a left tackle, and his impact on the run game is huge. While it has been a while, there is reason to believe that 2023 will be his best season since 2019. He has had no injuries or setbacks and has been training, not rehabbing this offseason, which has not happened in a while.
When we last saw him he was trending up, and a full season out of him would be something Dobbins never had. Beyond that, they have the potential to get a lot more out of their center.
Tyler Linderbaum had his ups as a rookie and good reasons to buy into what he can bring. He also had his downs and plenty of room for growth this season. Still, his impact could become central in the run game. Linderbaum has never been known for his power, but he is known for his ability to move and create explosive runs by picking up blocks at the second level. Imagine what can happen if he gets on the same page with Dobbins, and he is five yards downfield giving Dobbins that last block he needs. We could see serious fireworks emerge.
Between Linderbaum and Stanley being better, and Dobbins being healthy, it could be the recipe for a career year.
1. J.K. Dobbins finished 2023 efficient for the Baltimore Ravens
J.K. Dobbins was returning from a severe knee injury that took a long recovery route. However, you could tall that right around the 50-carry mark, he started to really improve.
Once Dobbins found his footing he took off and finished the season strong. In fact, he was one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL last season. He finished third in first down rate among backs with 100 rushes behind just Cordarelle Patterson and Josh Jacobs. Also, he was fifth in breakaway run rate behind Kenyan Drake, Tony Pollard, Ken Walker, and James Cook.
So, he was churning out yards and moving the sticks, but he was also hitting the big ones. This is impressive, especially because as you can see, in his first 20 carries, he looked like he was running with a leg brace. It took him a week or two to get used to running again and a few more games to get that second gear. However, once he got that down he was back to being one of the best running backs in the NFL. Considering this was still close to him being back to 100% and he has a full offseason to get better, he could end up first in a lot of those categories.
Now, there is no reason to think that he will do anything but continue this, especially when you factor in the improved offense and line.