The AFC North is always going to be physical, but this game is going to be a lot about defense. Specifically the defense of the Cleveland Browns which might be the best in the NFL. Lamar Jackson will have to solve it and the Ravens defense will need to keep Deshaun Watson in check.
For The Ravens to win this game, they need their quarterback and defense to play great, so that’s what we’ll look into with our prop bets for this divisional rivalry game in Cleveland.
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Best NFL Prop Bets for Ravens vs. Browns
- Deshaun Watson under 21.5 rushing yards
- Durham Smythe over 25.5 receiving yards
- Elijah Moore over 3.5 receptions
Deshaun Watson under 21.5 rushing yards
The Browns are changing their offense with Nick Chubb out. Now, it is fully built around Deshaun Watson and his strengths, but interestingly they haven’t leaned into his running ability. It’s just a one-game sample, so this could be off, but in a more spread system, the ball is typically going to come out faster. That happened, his time to throw last week was the quickest of the year at 3.08 seconds. He also rushed for the fewest yards of any game this season with 16 on four carries.
Watson attempted 33 passes last week, and I expect that number to remain high. Watson is looking more comfortable as a passer and Baltimore will keep him in the pocket. Not to mention that when he does take off, there isn’t a better inside linebacker duo to chase him down than Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen.
Lamar Jackson over 48.5 rushing yards
On the other hand, Lamar is going to need to use his legs. This season, he is Baltimore’s leading rusher. Jackson has run for 193 yards on a team-high 32 carries. That’s an average of 64.3 yards per game.
Cleveland doesn’t allow much, last week they only gave up 94 total yards to the Titans. The pass rush of the Browns is the best in football right now, with a 32.3% pressure rate which is No. 1. Jackson will be forced to scramble. When facing pressure this season, Jackson is third in scrambles, taking off seven times, and is only passing for 3.5 yards per attempt.
Elijah Moore over 3.5 receptions
This is a layup, even though it’s a pro-Cleveland bet. Watson hyper-targets Moore and has thrown his way 25 times this season, which is the same number as Amari Cooper. Yet Cooper’s receiving total is set at 4.5 with juice to the over.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change