This was always going to be an interesting season for Lamar Jackson with the Baltimore Ravens. It was his first year with Todd Monken as the offensive coordinator and with all kinds of new pieces there were expectations for ups, but also the possibility that downs would come as well.
What are some of the key stats to follow for Jackson through three weeks to make sure that the downs do not continue?
3. Lamar Jackson is hurting the Baltimore Ravens under pressure
Lamar Jackson has often been one of the better passers under pressure. He has been able to stay calm and create in those situations, but that simply has been the case this year. So far, he is 6-16 under pressure with an interception, per PFF.
That comes with an 8.3% turnover-worthy play rate and not a single big-time throw. For comparison, last year he had a 5.4% big-time throw rate and a 2.9% turnover-worthy play rate. The year before he was at 5% in big-time throws and 4.8% in turnover-worthy plays.
He had a 48 passing grade under pressure in 2021, a 52 grade in 2022, and this year that is down to 35. He is not performing under pressure. This year, his pressure-to-sack rate is 26.7%. That is up from his career rate of 20.2%
What is causing Jackson to struggle under pressure right now, and what can he do to improve? Is it a lack of trust in the new system or the shuffling of injured players like Odell Beckham and Mark Andrews missing games? Whatever the case is, he needs to improve.
2. Lamar Jackson is not giving the Baltimore Ravens enough big-time-throws
The biggest aspect of Lamar Jackson is that he can make plays. He can make them with his feet, but he has always been able to make them through the air as well. When he extends the play he is able to make magic, and he also has always had an arm to make passes in big spots.
For his career, Lamar Jackson has a 4.8% big-time throw rate. In his MVP season, that number was 5.4%, and last year, it was 5%. His career low was 3.3% as a rookie, and beyond that, he has never been below 4.7%. Expect this year it is down to 3.3%.
We cannot blame the playmakers this year, even if Andrews missed week one and Beckham left early week two and missed week three. They still have Zay Flowers, and at when one of those two is in, this is a better group than the year before.
One thing you can point to is Jackson throwing more screen passes. A higher chunk of his throws have no shot to big-time throws, so of course, the number will go down. However, Jackson also is not making the big passes that he needs to guide the Ravens to victory.
Can Zay Flowers be that player? In two out of three weeks, he has been a gadget player, but in week two, he caught a huge pass from Jackson. The team needs more out of the big plays in the passing game.
1. Lamar Jackson has to stop fumbling this much for the Baltimore Ravens
This has to be the most frustrating aspect right now. Lamar Jackson is fumbling the ball too much. He has four fumbles this year. He cannot sustain that pace, but four fumbles through three games is well over the 12 fumbles he set as a career-high. He is almost halfway to 10, the second-worst number of his career.
On a per-drop back basis Lamar Jackson is fumbling 0.07% of the time. The year before it was 0.02, and his career high is 0.05 as a rookie. His career rate is 0.03, so he is fumbling more than twice as often when he drops back to pass. Talk about alarming,
His per rush rate is 0.08%, which is up from 0.05% the year before. His rate as a rookie was 0.13%, but his career rate is still 0.06%.
The facts are that Lamar Jackson is fumbling the football far too much. It did not cost them against the Texans, although it was close to. Against the Colts, a fumble in the red zone led to three points. The Ravens lost in overtime by three points. These are now becoming game-costing plays.
Can Lamar Jackson show that he can protect the football when he has the chance?