Why Matt Judon didn’t get his long-term deal with the Ravens

BALTIMORE, MD - DECEMBER 12: Matt Judon #99 of the Baltimore Ravens is interviewed after the game against the New York Jets at M&T Bank Stadium on December 12, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MD - DECEMBER 12: Matt Judon #99 of the Baltimore Ravens is interviewed after the game against the New York Jets at M&T Bank Stadium on December 12, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /
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Matt Judon will play under the franchise tag this season. What got in the way of a long-term deal:

There has been a lot of talk about how COVID19 has made things difficult for the Baltimore Ravens and Matt Judon to come to a long-term contract agreement. While it’s clearly a factor, there are a lot of reasons why it was hard for Judon to secure the bag this offseason.

He is a player at a premium position, yet he’s a borderline star. He’s not a top five pass rusher and he’s better than good, but not quite elite. As a pass rusher his numbers are solid, yet he’s never had a 10 sack season. It’s kind of an arbitrary thing to note because he was a half sack away from double digits in 2019. Arbitrary or not a star outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense  is almost expected to have double digit sack seasons on his resume. 18 players in the NFL had at least 10 quarterback sacks last season.

This is where the problem is for Judon. He generates a good bit of quarterback pressures but he plays at a position where a high sack total equals a high pay day. The Ravens want to keep Judon. They value what he brings to the table and they aren’t over consumed by the number of times he’s put a passer on the ground. Judon is in fact, a player who does a lot for their defense.

According to Pro Football Focus, Matt Judon played 837 snaps in the 2019 season. Of the Ravens edge rushers he had more snaps in run defense, pass rush and coverage than the rest of the edge rushers in Baltimore. Just with the fact that Judon played 439 more snaps than Tyus Bowser, you can see that he is a key player to the defense.

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The Ravens biggest problem is the amount of help Judon has at the outside linebacker position. Even the Ferguson optimist will tell you that the Louisiana Tech product is still a work in progress. Even the most adamant of Tyus Bowser apologists will tell you that he’s not quite where Baltimore needs him to be. Pernell McPhee is solid, but the fact is that the purple and black’s second best outside linebacker is a 31 year old player with a worrisome injury history.

The Ravens have tried to circumvent this by improving the defensive front in between their outside linebackers. Calais Campbell is a new face and he’s the surest pass rusher the team has. By adding to the defensive line and to the inside linebacker positions what  general manager, Eric DeCosta, is really going for is less dependency on his edge rushers.

Judon puts the Ravens in a weird spot to be in. He’s good enough that the team absolutely needs him. You can even make the argument that he’s deserving of a long term deal. The problem is that he’s not in the same category as the other elite Ravens who must stick around. Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley, Mark Andrews and Marlon Humphrey are in every way among the NFL’s best at their positions. Judon has a chance to prove he can be the next Terrell Suggs however he hasn’t done it yet.

This was a bad year to get an elite pass rusher. The 2020 NFL Draft had slim pickings in terms of instant impact prospects with a high ceiling. The market for outside linebackers has been a bit weird this year. Jadeveon Clowney is still available and the Jaguars haven’t been able to deal Yannick Ngakoue to another team. On top of that Everson Griffen is still a free agent. The Ravens didn’t have enough pass rush so they increased their athleticism in the front seven overall.

The Bottom Line:

In short, the Ravens franchise tagged Judon because they had no choice. They are biding their time. Either Judon will prove himself this way with elite production, or the Ravens will likely find another answer. Judon is going into his fifth season in the NFL. If he’s going to take a step up to the elite level, it has to be now.

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He’ll have a good career one way or the other, yet if he wants a huge payday from the Ravens, he needs to have a monster season. It won’t be enough to be good in 2020 because he’s already done that. The Ravens have improved the pass rushing situation in Baltimore. Judon is expected to have better numbers because of this which means his step up has to be more than just a little noticeable.