Ravens have crazy high odds of making the playoffs in 2022

The Baltimore Ravens currently have a near-100 percent chance of making the playoffs this season, according to ESPN’s metrics.

After finishing last in the AFC North in 2021, the Ravens sit at the top of the division with a 7-3 record. They’re trailed by the Cincinnati Bengals, who only have one fewer loss, yet Baltimore has the advantage of a much easier remaining schedule in 2022.

While this doesn’t guarantee their spot in the postseason, it certainly makes things easier for them. As fans saw in Week 11, the Ravens will still have their share of hiccups even against sub-.500 teams, but on paper at least, this is their division to lose.

ESPN’s Jamison Hensley recently listed each AFC Norths team’s chance of reaching the playoffs this year and has the Ravens at a whopping 98.6 percent. The Bengals clock in at 72.3 percent, and the Browns and Steelers have just a 2.7 percent chance and 0.2 percent chance respectively.

Baltimore Ravens have a straight shot to the postseason in 2022

The chances of the Ravens winning the division are slightly lower at 89.1 percent, yet they are clearly the favorites, and for good reason.

Baltimore has defensive playmakers all over the field with Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen forming an unstoppable linebacker duo and with cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters returning to elite form.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson, put simply, is a game-changer. And he’ll be boosted by a potential resurgent rushing attack as J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards soon re-enter the fold.

The team’s most worrisome concern, nonetheless, is the state of the passing attack.

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell criticized the Ravens’ Week 11 performance and claimed the team’s fatal flaws may have been exposed:

"“The Ravens have the defense to compete with most other teams, but can they do enough on offense to move the ball against the Bills? Can they catch passes against the Chiefs? Can Jackson march them up and down the field against the Titans? I have faith in the star quarterback, but after watching them flail for 60 minutes against the lowly Panthers, I have to admit that I expected more.”"

The Ravens haven’t scored a passing touchdown in two of their past four games, and since Week 4, Jackson is averaging just 6.1 yards per pass attempt. That mark is higher than only two quarterbacks in the league: Kenny Pickett and Mac Jones.

With Mark Andrews back in Week 11, Jackson had every reason to improve his passing production, yet he wasn’t able to capitalize on short-field possessions and scored just one touchdown all game.

As it stands, the Ravens hold the fourth seed in the AFC, and ESPN’s metrics predict an insanely high likelihood of them making it to the postseason in 2022.

Looking at their competitors, however, Baltimore’s offense pales in comparison to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs or Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins.

The Dolphins have scored over 30 points in their last three wins and are on a roll; the Chiefs just came off a victory against the Chargers in which Mahomes, as always, made football look easy: at the end of the fourth quarter, he needed only 1 minute and 15 seconds to drive down the field and score a game-winning touchdown.

Sooner or later, the past will catch up to the Ravens, and Baltimore will need to ask itself whether it can stay in the ring with AFC passing powerhouses.

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic, but there are also plenty of reasons to curb expectations after last week’s sluggish outing against the Panthers.