A little over a month ago, the Baltimore Ravens were in the middle of a full-on collapse. At 1-5, it looked like their season was already over. Some people were even calling for Head Coach John Harbaugh to be fired
Over the last four games, Baltimore has quietly worked its way back into playoff conversations. Heading into Week 12, the Ravens are just one game behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in the race for the AFC North title. With two games remaining against their heated rivals, they have their sights set on reclaiming the division throne.
According to the latest playoff odds, it’s only a matter of time before the Ravens pass the Steelers by.
Playoff odds show Ravens are expected to steal playoff spot from Steelers
A quick look at the AFC playoff picture shows that the field is starting to take shape. Per the league website, the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, and Buffalo Bills all have at least a 90% chance to make it to the postseason. A few other teams are hovering around 60% with a significant chance to get in.
But the battle between the Ravens and Steelers isn't what it seems. While the Steelers sit in first place in the AFC North and would be the fourth seed in the conference if the postseason started today, they only have a 39% chance to make it to Wild Card weekend. Meanwhile, the Ravens have a 77% chance to get in, by far the highest mark for any team currently outside of the field. According to this model, Baltimore's rise to the top of the division is almost inevitable.
Those odds might seem outlandish at first glance, but they line up with the rest of the Ravens' schedule. Over the next three weeks, Baltimore plays the New York Jets, the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Steelers. All three games are at home. They'll be overwhelming favorites in the first two, especially if Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is still sidelined. Then, if they can beat the Steelers, they'll take sole possession of first place in the division. From that point, it's just a matter of holding off the rest of their AFC North rivals for a few weeks.
The Ravens' season may have been on the brink just a short time ago, but they're now in control of their own destiny. If these odds are any indication, Steelers fans should be terrified and Ravens fans should rejoice.