The Baltimore Ravens are back this week after their bye, and you’d think the break might’ve been relaxing. Nope. Coming off a Week 13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles that featured a disappearing act by trade-deadline pickup Diontae Johnson (who’s now suspended for this game), it’s safe to say there’s been some drama in Charm City.
But you know what cures all drama? A good, old-fashioned Lamar Jackson takeover. And lucky for us, the New York Giants’ defense is serving up exactly what Jackson feasts on: single-high safety coverage. This isn’t just speculation—Pro Football Focus spelled it out for us:
Lamar Jackson is primed to exploit the Giants' heavy single-high coverage usage
— PFF BAL Ravens (@PFF_Ravens) December 15, 2024
Jackson ranks 1st in passing grade against single-high coverage shells, a defense that the Giants utilize at the 5th highest rate in the NFL. This combination sets the stage for a productive outing pic.twitter.com/YNtGJzy3Xh
Translation: the Giants are walking into this game with the perfect recipe for Lamar to cook.
The New York Giants' defense plays right into Lamar Jackson's strengths
Look, single-high safety alignments can work—if you’re playing a quarterback who’s easily rattled or lacks mobility. That’s not Lamar Jackson. Against single-high looks, Jackson is surgical. He thrives on the open space they leave in the intermediate and deep parts of the field, and when those plays aren’t there, he’s got no problem tucking it and running.
And about that running? It’s worth mentioning that the Giants’ defense isn’t exactly great at stopping it. They’re terrible at it. New York ranks 30th in the league in rushing yards per attempt allowed and has surrendered the highest rate of 10-plus-yard runs in the NFL (15.6%). Meanwhile, Lamar averages 6.1 yards per carry this season—third-best among rushers with 50 or more attempts.
Translation for Giants fans: good luck.
If the Ravens’ rushing attack dominates early—and it should—the Giants are going to have to rely on their passing game to climb back into it. And that’s where things go from bad to worse for New York.
Remember the first half of this season when the Ravens’ defense couldn’t get off the field? That’s looking more like ancient history by the week. Defensive Coordinator Zach Orr has completely flipped the script, turning a unit that ranked near the bottom in nearly every category into one of the NFL’s most intimidating defenses since Week 11.
Orr’s adjustments, particularly shifting Kyle Hamilton to free safety, have revitalized the secondary and eliminated costly mistakes. Over the last four weeks, Baltimore ranks second in total yards allowed, first in yards per play, and second in passing yards allowed. That’s not exactly the kind of defense a struggling Giants offense wants to see.
With the Ravens’ defense peaking at the perfect time, the Giants’ passing attack—which is dead last in yards per attempt (5.77) and passer rating (74.7)—looks completely overmatched. Regardless of who’s under center, this isn’t the matchup where you expect a miracle.
If New York doesn’t adjust—and history says they won’t—this game could be over by halftime.