Two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL face off in the AFC Championship Game, but they will have to go against the top two scoring defenses in the NFL.
Last season’s MVP – Patrick Mahomes – will look to lead the Kansas City Chiefs to an upset win over the likely MVP this season – Lamar Jackson – and the Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore ranks No. 1 in points allowed this season while the Chiefs clock in at No. 2, making this a tough matchup to bet. Do we trust the quarterbacks to get the best of these defenses?
Or, will this be a low-scoring affair to advance to the Super Bowl?
There are a few players that I think are matchup-proof in this game, and that makes them solid bets to find the end zone in the AFC title game.
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Let’s dive into the picks for this game, which has Baltimore set as a 3.5-point favorite.
Best anytime touchdown scorer picks for Chiefs vs. Ravens
- Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown scorer
- Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer
- Isaiah Likely anytime touchdown scorer
Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown scorer
During the regular season, Jackson ran for just five touchdowns, but he picked up two in the divisional round against the Houston Texans.
The Ravens quarterback is the best dual-threat player in the NFL, and he has a favorable matchup in this game against Kansas City.
The way to beat this Chiefs defense is on the ground – the Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per carry this season – and nobody runs the ball more this season than Baltimore.
John Harbaugh and Todd Monken trusted Jackson in a big way last week, having him register 11 carries for 100 yards. He may not run it that many times this week, but I think Lamar is in a great spot to score with the Ravens likely leaning on the run.
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer
Over his last 12 playoff games, Travis Kelce has been downright unreal, and that continued with a two-touchdown performance against the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round.
Kelce has caught at least one score in 10 of his last 12 playoff games, finding the end zone 13 total times in that stretch.
While Baltimore has an elite pass defense, Kelce is one of the few players I’d bet on in this spot given his pedigree.
The future Hall of Famer did not have his best season in 2024, but he showed last week he’s still Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target when it matters. I think he can score in the AFC title game.
Isaiah Likely anytime touchdown scorer
This is a value pick for Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely, even if Mark Andrews returns from injury this week.
It’s hard to see the Ravens throwing Andrews back into an every down role, and Likely has been more than sufficient replacing the star tight end.
Over his last six games – including the playoff win over Houston – Likely has six touchdown catches, scoring in five of those matchups.
Yet, his odds are nearly double Andrews’ to find the end zone this week.
It’s possible the Ravens use Andrews as a decoy at points, and Jackson clearly is confident in Likely, especially in the red zone. He’s my favorite value bet in the AFC Championship.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.