The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs are set to give us one of the best matchups we’ll ever see in the NFL in the AFC Championship Game this season.
These teams feature two-star quarterbacks, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (last season’s MVP) and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (likely this season’s MVP), and a trip to Super Bowl 58 is on the line.
These defenses are the two best-scoring defenses in the NFL, with Baltimore ranking No. 1 this season. It’s hard to find a much better matchup than this.
The Ravens are favored at home, and the team is the No. 2 team in the NFL against the spread this season (including playoffs). Can Baltimore cover – which would mean it wins – to advance to Super Bowl 58?
Using the latest odds, I’m going to attempt to predict the final score in this game – one of the harder things to do when sports betting. However, if I’m right this could pay off in a big way in the prop market.
Let’s break this matchup down:
Chiefs vs. Ravens odds, spread and total
Ravens score prediction
There are a lot of reasons to like the Ravens to win this game, starting with the team’s offense.
Baltimore runs the ball more than any team in the NFL, which is a great sign because that’s how you need to attack this Kansas City defense. The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per carry this season, and that could be where the Ravens control the ball – and this game – on Sunday.
Also, the team is looking like it’s going to have its best pass-catching weapon, star tight end Mark Andrews, back in action on Sunday. That should make this team dynamic on that side of the ball.
But… that doesn’t guarantee a cover.
There is no denying Mahomes’ success as an underdog, and he showed he can not only cover — but win as well — as an underdog on the road in the playoffs against the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round.
This is Mahomes’ sixth straight AFC title game, which has to give him a little bit of an edge, especially as a 3.5-point dog.
While the Ravens have the second-best record against the spread in the NFL this season, it’s hard to justify fading Mahomes, who is 9-1-1 ATS as a dog in his career (he’s also 8-3 SU in those games).
I think this game ends up being extremely close, allowing the Chiefs to cover, but don’t expect a high-scoring affair. These defenses are legit, especially Baltimore’s against the pass.
Final score prediction: Ravens 23, Chiefs 21
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.