Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for AFC Championship Game

Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) reacts after
Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) reacts after / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Ravens have avoided disaster in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs and will now advance to the AFC Championship Game with a Super Bowl berth on the line.

They'll host the defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, on Sunday in what should be a classic Lamar Jackson vs. Patrick Mahomes showdown.

The Ravens are set as betting favorites to win the game, but any game against Mahomes is going to be a tough one and shouldn't be taken lightly. In this article, I'm going to break down everything you need to know to bet on this game.

If you want to get in on the action, you should sign up for an account at BetMGM. If you do so by clicking the link below, you'll receive $158 in bonus bets when you place your first $5 wager.

Bet on the Ravens at BetMGM now!

Chiefs vs. Ravens odds, spread, and total

Chiefs vs. Ravens betting trends

  • Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the Chiefs' last five games
  • Chiefs are 11-2 straight up in their last 13 road games
  • Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played in January
  • Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams

Chiefs vs. Ravens injury reports

Kansas City Chiefs injury report

  • Kadarius Toney - WR - Questionable
  • Wanya Morris - OT - Questionable
  • Derrick Nnadi - DT - Questionable
  • Joe Thuney - G - Questionable
  • Willie Gay - LB - Questionable

Baltimore Ravens injury report

  • Tylan Wallace - WR - Questionable
  • Del'Shawn Phillips - LB - Questionable
  • Marlon Humphrey - CB 0 Questionable
  • Mark Andrews - TE - IR-R

Chiefs vs. Ravens how to watch

  • Date: Sunday, January 28
  • Game Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • Kansas City Chiefs Record: 11-6
  • Baltimore Ravens Record: 13-4

Chiefs vs. Ravens key players to watch

Kansas City Chiefs

Isiah Pacheco: The Ravens sport arguably the best secondary in the NFL, so the path to victory for the Chiefs is running the football. Isiah Pacheco has had a strong postseason through two games for Kansas City, averaging 4.8 yards per carry on 39 attempts.

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson: The Ravens will go as far as the soon-to-be two-time NFL MVP will take them. he's not only their quarterback, but he's their leading rusher too. He ran for 100 yards on 11 carries against the Texans last week and if he can do that again against the Chiefs, he's going to put the Ravens in a great spot to win t his game.

Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction and pick

I begrudgingly took the Chiefs in the Divisional Round, and I'm happy I did, but this time I have to go against them and lay the points with the Ravens. If styles make fights, then the Ravens are the obvious bet in the AFC Championship.

The biggest weakness for the Chiefs' defense is their inability to stop the run. The Chiefs rank 25th in opponent yards per carry, giving up 4.5 yards per rush. They also gave up 4.7 yards per carry to the Bills last week. If you look at some more advanced metrics, they're 28th in opponent EPA per rush and 15th in opponent rush success rate.

That's bad news for them this week considering no team runs the football more than the Ravens and few teams run the ball better. They average 5.0 yards per carry and come in at third in both rush EPA and rush success rate.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens enter with arguably the best pass defense in the league, allowing just 5.2 yards per pass attempt, the best mark in the NFL.

The Ravens also currently boast the second best red zone defense in the NFL, allowing teams to score a touchdown on only 40.82% of red zone trips against them. That could be the difference maker in this game as the Chiefs red zone difference has been a sore spot for them this season, coming in at 19th in red zone touchdown percentage.

I'll lay the points with the Ravens and do the unthinkable by betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!