When the Baltimore Ravens take on the Kansas City Chiefs, it will be two of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL squaring off. It will also be two of the best defenses in the NFL. While the Kansas City Chiefs' defense has been one of the best groups in the NFL this year, they do have a weakness. They are much better against the pass than the run.
Baltimore Ravens should be able to run on the Kansas City Chiefs
They currently rank third in expected points given up in the passing game, and they are second in success rate allowed on dropbacks. Meanwhile, they rank 28th in EPA given up in the running game, and they are 15th in success rate allowed.
This obviously benefits Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, who can pass the ball but are much better as a rushing group. The Ravens rank third in both EPA and success rate as a running unit.
This will be the fifth game in which the Chiefs face a group that ranks in the top ten in both metrics. They are 1-4 in those games and 0-4 in the regular season. They lost to the Bills, Eagles, Lions, and Packers, mainly because all four teams could move the ball on the ground.
The Chiefs did beat Buffalo in the playoffs, but that was on the back of Patrick Mahomes playing excellently. Josh Allen had 12 rushes for 72 yards, James Cook had 18 rushes for 61 yards, and Ty Johnson had seven rushes for 40 yards in the loss.
If that stat line is mimicked by Lamar Jackson, Justice Hill, and Gus Edwards, they will not lose that game. Jackson has to be seeing Allen hit a big run after a devastating run against the Chiefs and realize the best way to beat them is to keep it on the ground. This is the best thing that could happen to the Ravens.
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