1. Lamar Jackson over/under 62.6% completion rate on 447 passing attempts
Lamar Jackson has hit 400 passing attempts just once in his career, and it was his MVP season. Still, even then, he was at 401 passing attempts, so just barely over the line. Now, with Todd Monken, the question is less about 400 attempts and more about how far over he may end up going.
For ESPN, they have him down for 447, a clear career high. To be fair, in 2021, he averaged 31.8 attempts per game, which would have been a career-high considering he was at just 26.7 attempts per game during his MVP season.
Jackson was down to 27.1 attempts per game last year, which still would have been over 400, but also was not quite as high as in 2021. What is interesting is that he is projected for 29.8 this year. That does feel like a perfect number as it is a jump from 2022, but not quite as high as 2021.
We will go there just slightly because we are leaning over most passing stats. At 62.6% passing, the only year he did not hit that was 2022. It is fair to say that he will be throwing deeper, but he is a career 63.7% completion rate passer, and the list of receivers is so much lesser. Even when thinking of all the drops he had through his career, you could see this number perhaps staying around the same as his career rate due to the added attempts this year, but also the added skill players.
Over 447 attempts, over 62.6% passing