What are some realistic expectations for Mark Andrews in this new offense with all of these new weapons? Mike Clay from ESPN makes the projections and tends to be more accurate than most. So, what does he have Andrews down for, and do we think that Clay is too high or low on these projections?
Over or Under 71 catches on 108 targets for Mark Andrews with Baltimore Ravens in 2023
Last season Mark Andrews had 73 catches on 113 targets, so this is about the same stat line. On the one hand, he missed Lamar Jackson for a good portion of the year, but on the other, he now will have added target competition. Still, he caught 66.9% of his targets for his career, and his career low before last year was 65.5%. Last year it was 64.6% last year, and Clay is projecting it at 65.7% this year.
The target competition is fair, so if we did reduce his targets to 105 and gave him a 66.5% completion rate, it would only get him to 70 catches. So, we while we see a number closer to 70 on 105, we do see him slightly under.
Under 71 catches, under 108 targets
Over or Under 840 yards for Mark Andrews with Baltimore Ravens in 2023
Mark Andrews has gone over this total on three of his five years. What is interesting is that Clay is still giving him 108 targets but seems to be assuming that his yards will go down because the others getting more of the pie. We see his targets going down, but his yards per target could go up.
This is because attention will finally shift away from him, and Todd Monken may use him down the field a bit more. His yards per target for his career is 8.6, but last year it was 7.5. Clay has him at 7.7 this year. That is an increase over last year, but when you factor in that he will not only have better quarterback play and more help but also deeper targets, the thought should be that he will get much closer to his career rates. The combination of QB, play caller, and skill players led to a dramatic drop.
Even if he had 100 targets and was at 8.5 yards per target, a notch below his career average, he goes over this total. That is under targets under the Clay projection. It is easy to bet that the targets go down due to the added weapons, but his yards can go back up, even if that is just back to his career rate in yards per target.
Over 840 yards
Over or Under 7 touchdowns for Mark Andrews with Baltimore Ravens in 2023
This one is interesting and about perfect when you look at his career touchdown per target and touchdown per catch rates. Andrews has gone over twice, pushed twice, and hit seven once. He averages 6.8 touchdowns per year.
The question is whether you think these other targets can take away from Andrews in the red zone. One thing that could hurt is a healthy J.K. Dobbins. Beyond that, Odell Beckham is a significant red zone target, and Isaiah Likely has a real chance to emerge in year two. If he becomes a more significant red zone target it makes it hard to go over, even though seven may be just right.
Under seven touchdowns