Are these stat projections fair for Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely?

What is a projected stat line for Isaiah Likely in 2023 with the Baltimore Ravens?
Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

There is a big question about what Isaiah Likely will do in the Baltimore Ravens offense this season. He had a big role last season, but the team changed coordinators and added multiple wide receivers. So, what will his stats look like with the changes?

Mike Clay of ESPN does the fantasy football projections, and he has a track record of getting within the ballpark on most of his projections. So, what does Clay see for Likely in 2023 with the Baltimore Ravens?

Over or Under 34 targets, 22 catches, 230 yards, and two touchdowns for Isaiah Likely with the Baltimore Ravens?

Last year, Isaiah Likely had 36 catches on 60 targets for 373 yards and three touchdowns. It is rare to see a player who has the talent that Likely displayed and put up those stats as a rookie tight end but then sees his stats get worse the following year. However, this makes plenty of sense in the case of Isaiah Likely.

Last year, Likely was third on the team in targets with just Demarcus Robinson and Mark Andrews ahead of him. We projected Andrews and will get similar targets. So, either Odell Beckham, Rashod Bateman, and Zay Flowers have to split 75 targets that Robinson is leaving, the offense will not run the ball at all, or Isaiah Likely will have to lose targets. The Ravens will also be getting Charlie Kolar back. Even though Likely showed a ton, the team did draft Kolar ahead of him after all.

The stat line may be about right, but we may even see it going under that when you consider Jackson will always have the ability to run, even when passes are called. There not only will there not be enough targets, but there may not be enough snaps for Likely to play. If he does not get on the field, it will be hard to earn targets.

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However, one area we will go over is touchdowns. He hit three last season, and if his role does specialize, the usage should come in the red zone. That is the best time to bring in multiple tight ends, suck the defense in with run looks, and then hit the tight ends.

Under 34 targets, 22 catches, 230 yards

Over two touchdowns