After breaking down some realistic expectations for the rookie season of Zay Flowers with the Baltimore Ravens, the question now is whether or not he can meet them. Mike Clay of ESPN makes the fantasy projections and is one of the best for setting accurate stat lines for players in the upcoming season.
What does he see Zay Flowers doing as a rookie, and do we see him going over or under those totals as a rookie?
Over or Under 49 catches on 78 targets for Zay Flowers with Baltimore Ravens in 2023
When we looked into past history, an average season for a first-round pick in his draft range would be 86 targets and 46 catches. However, if you take out some of the busts and only focus on the positive outcomes, it would move up closer to 100 targets and 60 catches. So, at this rate, he would be closer to the average.
The question here is more about the split in targets between Flowers, Odell Beckham, Rashod Bateman, and of course, Mark Andrews. Andrews will be the top dog, and while Beckham and Bateman have their injury concerns, both will be the top wideout when healthy. With this in mind, it is easier to go under.
But if Flowers does get 86 targets, which is about average, we could see more than the 46 or 49 catches so that we will lean over.
Over 78 targets and over 49 catches
Over or Under 625 yards for Zay Flowers with Baltimore Ravens in 2023
The average outcome for rookies in his draft range is 601 yards, and the higher outcome for players was at 878 yards. So, if Flowers goes under this rate, it better not be by much. We noted that while there is always an exception or two, 500 yards appears to be the line most rookies need to hit. If you do not finish year one with 500 yards, the odds of becoming an NFL player get much lower, even if you are drafted in the top 40 picks.
With us assuming Flowers will be a bit more efficient and thinking 500-600 is closer to a floor, we will go over, but it does feel like 600-700 yards is a safe bet for the rookie.
Over 625 yards
Over or Under 5 touchdowns for Zay Flowers with Baltimore Ravens in 2023
We have been optimistic about Flowers, and most successful first-round picks find the end zone, even as rookies. However, this is where we will lean under. Clay was a bit lighter on the other stats, where five touchdowns would feel high on just 49 catches. Especially when you factor in the Ravens' rushing attack, their tight ends, and even Patrick Ricard, who steals a few touchdowns. Flowers could help get them there, but four touchdowns are more likely.
Under five touchdowns