NFL Draft: Ravens place higher emphasis on production

Drafting players with incredible numbers

Look at the wide receiver position. The old Ravens wouldn’t have drafted Marquise Brown. They would not have wanted to take a chance on a receiver who was undersized and dealing with an injury. Look at the production Brown had though, and you’ll see why they took him. In two seasons Brown racked up 132 receptions, 2,413 yards and 17 touchdowns. That’s just two seasons at Oklahoma. That’s incredible.

Compare that to the numbers that Breshad Perriman had. In three years, Perriman had 115 receptions, 2,243 yards and 16 touchdowns. The bulk of that production came in Perriman’s final season with the UCF Knights. He never had more than 50 receptions in a season. He was a good deep threat at the college level and the Ravens fell in love with speed. The lesson here is that production tells you a lot about the traits you’re seeing. How a player shows up in the box score helps explain how they are using their traits.

Remember when Brian Billick fell in love with Kyle Boller out of Cal? Well the only thing he had going for him was a rocket arm and looking the part. Boller had trouble at the college level getting his completion percentage up and protecting the football. Those problems translated into the NFL. The lesson to learn from that 2003 mistake is that if a prospect can’t do it in college, that struggle will more than likely follow him to the NFL.

The Ravens have clearly changed the criterion for draft prospects who will touch the football. Just look at the last three drafts and there is plenty of evidence that they started putting more weight on production. In 2018 they drafted Lamar Jackson, who was basically a one man show at Louisville with awesome numbers as a dual threat passer. The players the Ravens have put around him have impressive statistical totals at the college level:

• Mark Andrews: three years 112 receptions 1,765 yards, 22 touchdowns
• Marquise Brown: two years 132 receptions 2,413 yards, 17 touchdowns
• Justice Hill: three years 632 carries 3,539 yards, 30 touchdowns
• J.K. Dobbins: three years, 725 carries 4,459 yards 38 touchdowns
• Devin Duvernay: four years 2,468 yards, 16 touchdowns
• James Proche: four years 301 receptions, 3,949 yards, 39 touchdowns

There are exceptions for every rule. For example, Mark Clayton was a very prolific Oklahoma  receiver. He was okay at the next level but in terms of his first round draft position he was a bust for Baltimore. Miles Boykin was drafted more because of his high ceiling than his production. Boykin has such an intriguing combination of size and speed, that you can’t blame the Ravens for signing up for that. It could work too, which is exciting for Baltimore.

The general rule is to find the best combination of production and traits. The one thing that you can’t do as an NFL decision maker is to fall in love with a prospect simply because he looks the part and has the measurables.