The Baltimore Ravens had their chances to defeat the Buffalo Bills back in January, but they were largely undone by shoddy ball handling. They suffered three fumbles and three drops, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). In the regular season, PFF tracked the Ravens with 15 total drops and 14 fumbles on offense.
Heading into Week 1, the Ravens have a chance to avenge that playoff loss, but they must avoid that fatal error that doomed them in the Divisional Round last year.
Fumbles
In the playoff game, both Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews lost key fumbles. Jackson's came in a tie game while the Ravens were driving in the second quarter. He bobbled the snap, then was too loose with the football when Damar Hamlin sacked him. Von Miller took the ensuing return 39 yards, putting the Bills inside the Baltimore 25-yard line.
Andrews' fumble was even more back-breaking. After a key first down, Andrews turned upfield in Bills' territory before Terrel Bernard punched the football out. Bernard recovered the fumble, keeping the Bills' five-point lead intact.
The forgotten fumble is Tylan Wallace's fumble on the potential game-tying drive right before the two-minute warning. He caught a short pass and pushed into Buffalo territory before Cole Bishop punched the ball out. Wallace recovered it himself, avoiding disaster.
Regular Season
Only three Ravens lost fumbles in 2024. Jackson lost five, one against the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals (Week 5), Buccaneers, and Giants. Both Derrick Henry and Isaiah Likely lost fumbles in Baltimore's loss to the Steelers.
While the Ravens' total of seven lost fumbles ranked in the top quarter of the league in terms of fewest fumbles, it still represents seven drives that were snuffed out early. Both the Chiefs and Steelers losses were one-score defeats where one extra possession could have been the difference.
Drops
The Ravens had three drops in their playoff defeat to the Bills, tied for the most they had in an individual game all season. However, this tally does not include Andrews' drop on the two-point conversion, as it did not count as a pass attempt.
In terms of official drops, Andrews had one in the second quarter, the play before Jackson's fumble. Henry had two drops. The first came on the opening drive, but the Ravens ended up scoring a touchdown after a series of completions.
Henry's second drop came while the Ravens were trailing 14-7. On third and eight (from the Buffalo eight), Henry dropped a short pass over the middle. He was unlikely to score, but the Ravens had to settle for a field goal to make it 14-10, Bills.
The famous drop is Andrews' on the failed two-point conversion. While the play would have only tied the game, the failed conversion forced the Ravens into a desperation onside kick scenario.
Mark Andrews with a night to forget:
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 20, 2025
• 2Q drop
• 4Q fumble
• 2PT conversion drop
😬😬😬 pic.twitter.com/xeS7PRMzH9
Regular Season
Per PFF tracking, seven Ravens accounted for their 15 drops. Zay Flowers led the team with five drops, with Rashod Bateman following with four. Andrews had two drops. Rasheen Ali, Patrick Ricard, Nelson Agholor, and Isaiah Likely had one each.
The Ravens had generally solid hands throughout 2024. 4.5% of Jackson's on-target passes were dropped, 12th-best out of 39 quarterbacks with 250 dropbacks. The 4.5% drop rate is similar to that of the Chiefs (4.4% of Patrick Mahomes' on-target attempts).
In the playoffs, the drop rate spiked to 8.1% and 14.3% in the Bills game. On the other sideline, the Bills dropped just one of Allen's on-target throws - a 5.9% clip.
The Fix
Both drops and fumbles are aspects of the game that cannot be fully taken out. However, the Ravens do lag behind the other AFC juggernauts in terms of ball security. The Chiefs only lost three fumbles all season, while the Bills only lost two. Buffalo's skill position players did not lose a fumble all season. In terms of drops, Jackson faced a 4.9% drop rate (including playoffs), which falls between Mahomes' 4.7% rate and Allen's 5.2% rate.
The difference between the Ravens and the Bills or Chiefs is the timing of these catastrophic plays. In the biggest moments, the Ravens seem to make the most critical errors. Inexplicably, the Ravens have lost a fumble in opposing territory in the fourth quarter of their last three playoff losses.
This angle of L'Jarius Sneed forced fumble will forever haunt the Baltimore Ravens. pic.twitter.com/2q9gIakCav
— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) February 1, 2024
In the regular season, Ravens pass catchers have dropped 6.6% of Jackson's on-target passes. In the playoffs, the drop rate has increased to 8.8%. For Allen, the rate falls from 7.3% to 6.5%. Mahomes sees a slight increase: 6.5% to 7.1%, but that mark is still below that of the Ravens' pass catchers.
For the Ravens to beat the Bills - both in Week 1 and in a potential playoff rematch - they need to hold onto the ball and reduce the number of aborted drives.