The Baltimore Ravens were able to find a gem in Morgan Moses last season. They signed him after he was on the New York Jets the year prior, and Moses gave them 17 games, and one of the better seasons of his career. However, Moses will be 32 next season, and we know that the NFL is a game for men in their 20s for the most part. Is Moses getting close to hitting the wall, or facing the downside of his career?
What Baltimore Ravens can expect from Morgan Moses at his age
Last year, he had an Approximate Value of 8, according to Football Reference. Over the course of his career, they have often scored his value at six. So, we will look to see how many players at his age were at least able to hit that level of play.
It is interesting to note that as the age goes up, the number of players to put together that type of season goes down. At age 31, there were 41 tackles since 2011 to have a six or higher as their AV. This includes Morgan Moses.
At age 32, that number dropped to 24, so just under 60% of the lineman who excelled at age 31 were able to keep it going at age 32. This is where Morgan Moses will be, as he hopes that this jump in age does not impact him.
What is even more interesting to note is that the number drops from 24 to 16 by age 33, and then it goes down from 16 to nine by age 34. From 41 players who were able to play that well at age 31, to just nine at age 33, this is clearly when the cliff comes for so many. The number dropped to four by age 36, and then the rare names such as Jason Peters and Andrew Whitworth are the only names worth bringing up after that.
So, in almost all cases, the year in which Moses starts to struggle will either be this year or the next year after. Needless to say, by 2025, Moses will either be out of the league, or the Ravens will have certainly moved on at least.
Morgan Moses is signed for the 2024 season, but the Baltimore Ravens could also save ~$5M in cap space if they moved on from. That will be his age-33 season, and would definitely be the last season he plays for the Ravens.
The two things that will dictate if he is on the roster in 2024 will be his health and play, but also the play of the two young names behind him. Daniel Faalele will be entering his third season in 2024, and Sala Aumavae-Laulu will be entering his second season. If Moses does see a decline the Ravens could move on from his cap number, then have the two young rookie salary players compete to start at right tackle.
Either way, the Ravens have this timed right. The thought of him playing well two years from now seems thin, and they would be best playing the next two seasons year-by-year, because often tackles will see a drop in play quality once they hit this age.