Gus Edwards was only active for nine games and had a career-low 87 carries as he recovered from an injury that wiped away his entire 2021 season. So, what can we expect from the Baltimore Ravens running back now that he is in his sixth year?
Mike Clay of ESPN is a notable fantasy analyst who is one of the best in the business at projections. What does he expect from Gus Edwards, and are those expectations too high or too low for Gus Edwards?
Over or Under 118 carries for 535 for Gus Edwards with the Baltimore Ravens
118 would be the second-lowest total of his career, behind only last year when he played a partial season. Even if he kept his rate from last year for 14 or 15 games, he would have gone well over this total.
However, two factors have to be added in. First, the Ravens will run the ball less overall with Todd Monken. More than that, this is the year they have to get the most out of J.K. Dobbins. They do not expect to re-sign him, so they are not saving him for anything now.
The Ravens will surely split some snaps, but Dobbins may take the lead here. If we go over on Dobbins, we will go under on Edwards. For yards, we have to go under as well. He is at 4.5 yards per attempt here, which is well below his career rate of 5.2. However, if he had 100 carries and averaged five yards per attempt, it would be under. That seems possible when you think that Greg Roman may not have been the best passing game coordinator, but his run game scheme was top-shelf.
Over or Under 7 catches for 56 yards for Gus Edwards with the Baltimore Ravens
In 2020, Gus Edwards had a career-high nine catches for 129 yards, with a long of 34. For his career, he has 18 catches for 194 yards. One of the big reasons we think the team will lean heavier toward Dobbins is that he can be active in both the passing and running game. Edwards just is not effective here, so the team will not scheme up plays for him. We will go under, assuming Dobbins gets all the catches from running backs.
Over or Under 4 total touchdowns for Gus Edwards with the Baltimore Ravens
We can make it up here if we have been pessimistic toward Edwards before. Edwards had three touchdowns last year on 87 carries, and in 2020 he had six touchdowns. In the two years prior, he did not go over, but the truth is that as Edwards gets more limited in his role, his goal-line specialization will be more pronounced.
Dobbins brings more in the passing game, but Edwards can pack a punch and move a pile with the best of them. If he can get to 100 carries, he can churn out at least four touchdowns.