With a contract looming, this will be a make-or-break season for J.K. Dobbins with the Baltimore Ravens. Dobbins is finally healthy, although he sat out most of the offseason programs to ensure he got to the season without issue. So, now the question is, what will Dobbins do in this critical fourth season?
Mike Clay from ESPN is one of the best at fantasy projections, what does he think, and do we see Dobbins exceeding or failing to meet those expectations?
3. Over or Under 208 carries for 1000 yards for J.K. Dobbins with the Baltimore Ravens
208 carries is optimistic for Dobbins and definitely assumes health. He had 134 carries as a rookie and that is the best of his career. He only had 92 last season and finished up with 226 over the three years he has played. Needless to say, 208 would be a big jump.
Still, assuming health it is definitely on the table. When you look at the Ravens depth chart, Dobbins tops it with Gus Edwards and mininal depth. The Ravens may not keep him after this year, so they may load up carries on his plate and let him walk.
If Dobbins does get over 208 carries, he will almost certainly get over 1,000 rushing yards. He is averaging 5.9 yards per carry in his career, and his lowest rate is 5.7. With 1,000 yards, that would just assume 4.8 yards per carry. That is a great rate, but when his career rate is nearly a yard higher, it is projecting a drop off.
We will go slighly over on carries, but with closer to five or higher on his yards per carry, he will go well over 1,000 yards.
2. Over or Under 27 catches for 188 yards for J.K. Dobbins with the Baltimore Ravens
For his career, J.K. Dobbins has 25 catches for 162 yards. He would have to double his career rate this season to hit these numbers. He is also averaging 1.1 receptions per game for seven yards. At that rate, and the projected number of games Clay has given him he would have 16 catches for for 98 yards.
To be fair, the Ravens have said that they will pass more, and they have said that Lamar Jackson will check down rather than run as well. Still, we have to believe that before we see it, and even if we see an increase on his averages, 20 catches for 125 yardsd would be more than his averages, but less than Mike Clay is giving him.
1. Over or Under Nine Total Touchdowns for J.K. Dobbins with the Baltimore Ravens
J.K. Dobbins hit nine touchdowns, all on the ground in 2020 as a rookie. He just had three touchdowns last season, but that was a much smaller volume of games played. The thought is that Dobbins could go over here.
First, he probably missed two touchdowns last year because he had to shake off the rust and could not hit a second gear to finish runs. That should not be the issue now that he is back to full health. Beyond that, his usage in the redzone was a game changer as a rookie, and he should be integrated into that role much more this year.
Todd Monken knows how to use him, and he is great at holding the mesh to get space in the redzone. He once hit nine rushing touchdowns on 134 attempts, so with 208 attempts that is on the table. This, combined with him possibly catches more passes will lead to more touchdowns.