What will Odell Beckham do statistically for the Baltimore Ravens? While we will not know for sure until the season begins, Mike Clay of ESPN can give us an idea, at least. He is the projections analyst for ESPN, and while he gets plenty wrong, he also is one of the better analysts when it comes to projections.
So, what does Clay have projected for Odell Beckham, and are these optimistic projections, or are they a bit too pessimistic?
Over or Under 52 receptions on 84 targets for Odell Beckham with Baltimore Ravens
If you combine his time with the Rams and Browns from 2021, Odell Beckham had 44 receptions on 82 targets. His per-game stats were down the year prior, but just 3.4 catches to 3.1. Still, these are significant lows for his career, and he averages 5.5 receptions per game. The thought is that Beckham is now 31 and coming off missing an entire season, so his 2020 and 2021 stats are far more relevant than his career numbers.
Beyond that, the Ravens added Zay Flowers and are expecting Rashod Bateman to be healthy. The room is just not going to be led by him. Still, Flowers is a rookie, and Bateman is often injured. A mix of Beckhams' career-rates and his most recent play would lean toward him going over. With that in mind, we will go over it.
Over 52 receptions on 84 targets
Over/Under 676 yards for Odell Beckham with Baltimore Ravens
Mike Clay has Beckham projected to play 13 games so this rate would have him at 52 yards per game. His career rate is 76.7 yards per game, but he has averaged just 38 yards per game over the last two seasons. If you combine his career rate and the previous two seasons, you are at 57, so he is right around that range.
Also, Clay has him down for eight yards per target. His career rate is 8.4, though the last two years it was 6.6. So, Clay sees the targets being closer to recent years, but his yards per target getting back in line from the past.
Considering there will be less pressure on Beckham and there are more players to take attention away, we could see this projection come true. We did go over on targets, but we also could see Beckham less efficient on those targets, leading to closer to 650 yards.
Under 676 yards
Over/Under four touchdowns for Odell Beckham with Baltimore Ravens
Odell Beckham only played eight games with the Rams and had five touchdowns. He also had five touchdowns on just 82 targets in 2021. Still, Beckham started his career with 12, 13, and 10 touchdowns and then had 13 combined in the next three years. He has not gone over ten since 2016.
Beckham once was a touchdown scorer, and in the last two years, he started to become that person again. No one is saying he can get back to 10, but he definitely can go over four and get back to five. He should have the same targets and should be used mainly for the red zone. The yards may not come, but it may lead to him getting six or seven touchdowns.
Over four touchdowns