5 bold predictions for Baltimore Ravens in the second half of 2023 season

4. The Baltimore Ravens will phase out Odell Beckham for Patrick Ricard and Isaiah Likely 

The Baltimore Ravens gave Odell Beckham a chance, but he has not been working out. He is coming off his best game statistically, but the game still had an ugly drop and a fumble loss. It felt like they were targeting him in the second half to try to get him going. 

Their best bet in the second half may be to phase out Beckham and lean more into Patrick Ricard. When the Ravens added Todd Monken and lost Greg Roman, we knew that they would change to a more wide-receiver-heavy approach. Their three wide receivers sets, which is 11-personnel, is at 48.3% this season. That is up from 12.7% last year. However, they have not been better from this look.

According to Sumer Sports, the Ravens gain -0.07 expected points per play from 11-personnel this year, which ranks 23rd. They are at -0.13 expected points per pass. Last year, they were at the exact same on a per-play basis but ranked 25th and were at -0.11 on a per-pass basis. 

They are running better out of 11 personnel, with 0.18 EPA/play compared to 0.07 last year. Still, this is not making a huge difference. 

On the flip side, Monken has been able to take the Roman personnel and make it better. Their 21 personnel, which is two running backs and a tight end, often Patrick Ricard, ranks 3rd in EPA per play at 0.26. Their 12-personnel, which is two tight ends, ranks fifth at 0.13 EPA/play. Last year, they were at 0.09 EPA from 21 and 0.02 from 12. They are much better this year. 

Passing-wise, they gained 0.64 out of 21, 0.33 out of 12 this year, and 0.11 and -0.01 in those areas, respectively, last year. They are much better using Isaiah Likely and Patrick Ricard. They should work them in more but continue to use the Todd Monen concepts.