Now that Lamar Jackson got his contract, and the Baltimore Ravens also put the most pieces around him in his career, the question is, what will Lamar Jackson do? Can he replicate his MVP season, or instead, does he just find a way to win more in the playoffs? Or, does it blow up in his face?
Mike Clay at ESPN does Fantasy Football Projections, and he is one of the better long-term projectionists. We will see what he thinks Lamar Jackson will do and then bet whether he goes over or under these totals.
3. Lamar Jackson over/under 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions
Lamar Jackson threw for 36 touchdowns in 2019, and while that is an outlier season, he also threw for 26 touchdowns the following year. Injuries had something to do with not getting this high, but Jackson also went from a 9% touchdown rate down to 6.9% the following year. Then, he dropped to 4.2% and 5.2%. So, even if he threw the same number of attempts, his touchdowns were down.
There are two reasons to bet over. One is that he will throw more attempts, but the other is the touchdowns will go up. With two new receivers and an offense that leans to pass more, his passing stats should go up. It will depend on health.
However, with that, it is easy to lean to the over on interceptions as well. Jackson threw 13 back in 2021, and that is the only time he went over 10, and also went over 3% in his interception rate. Still, with Monken, Jackson will be throwing downfield a lot more, and that just leads to more picks. We will say something closer to 30 and 15 if he is healthy.
Over 25 touchdowns, over 11 Interceptions