As we get closer to the NFL season, we are projecting what each Baltimore Ravens player will do in 2023. With the help of Mike Clay at ESPN, we are using his projections as a baseline and then predicting if each player will hit over or under that stat line. What does Clay have in store for Nelson Agholor?
Over or Under 11 catches on 19 targets for 152 yards and one touchdown for Nelson Agholor with the Baltimore Ravens
Clay has Agholor for just 152 yards on 11 catches. His career low entering the year was 23 catches and 283 yards, and both were in his rookie season. Agholor did not live up to draft expectations, but he is not quite a bust as he has been able to stay in the NFL since 2015, and he averages 36 yards per game.
Still, after peaking in 2020 with a career-high 896 yards, he fell to 473 yards in 2021 and was phased out with 362 yards the following year. He is about to be 30 years old, his play was already trending down, and he signed with the Baltimore Ravens before they added Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers. With those two in the mix, it is easy to say that he will continue to trend down.
Still, can he hit 152 yards? Essentially this projection is just implying that none of Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers, or Rashod Bateman will miss significant time. Even a four-catch for the 50-yard game as a fill-in here or there will be close to getting him over if he has 16 other games as a fourth wideout.
If Agholor has to be in the top three for more than two weeks, he is almost a lock to go over these stats. When you consider the age and injury history of Odell Beckham, the idea that Rashod Bateman has not finished a season, and Zay Flowers being a rookie, the odds of Agholor getting some work are expected.
It is tough because Clay would be selling the others short on a guess to make Agholor look better. Still, 21 catches for 250 yards may be a stricter debate for him specifically because while you cannot say who will get hurt, you know Agholor will be able to fill in for any of the top three, and then produce just enough in that role.
Over 19 targets, Over 11 catches, Over 152 yards, Over one touchdown